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Macro Events & News

Written by By Andria Pichidi | 2018-05-15 06:54:06 GMT

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields extended gains overnight and the 10-year Treasury yield is up 1.3 bp at 3.015%, 10-year JGBs up 1.2 bp at 0.049%. Speculation about central bank tightening is back and the rise in yields as investors try to assess the outlook for global trade ahead of a meeting in Washington between U.S. and Chinese officials is putting pressure on stock markets. U.S. indices still managed marginal gains yesterday, but across Asia most markets are slightly down. A weaker yen helped Japanese markets and the Nikkei down -0.14%. The Hang Seng, which outperformed yesterday, is underperforming and down -1.17%. The CSI 300 has lost -0.315, amid a number of data releases suggesting economic momentum broadly held up. U.S. futures are also heading south. Oil prices are little changed and trading slightly below USD 71 per barrel.

FX Update: The dollar has rebounded from correction lows that were seen against many currencies yesterday. EURUSD has cleared yesterday’s and posted a two-day low at 1.1910, extending declines from yesterday’s high at 1.1996. USD-JPY has lifted toward 110.00, returning focus to recent trend highs at 110.01-03. AUDUSD has fallen to a three-session low, at 0.7503, and USDCAD to a three-session high, at 1.2822. The lift in the dollar has been concomitant with a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year T-note yield rising back above 3.0%. Amid this, global stocks are presently taking a downward turn, with S&P 500 futures showing a 0.3% loss and most Asian markets are showing declines. The U.S. ambassador to China warned today that the U.S. and China are “still very far apart” on trade, technology and market access. Oil prices have also found renewed buoyancy on Mideast geopolitical concerns (fallout from U.S. opening its Israeli embassy in Jerusalem, pending U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports, uncertainty about whether the Iranian nuclear deal will survive without the U.S., and what consequences this may have). This backdrop, along with the Fed tightening course, should keep the dollar broadly underpinned



Main Macro Events Today

  • German ZEW – Expectations – a slight rise is expected in the reading to -8.1 from -8.2, which is actually less optimistic than consensus expectations for an improvement to -4.4. The recent stock market recovery and the correction lower in long yields clearly underpinned investor confidence, however, and even if the numbers surprise on the upside, it won’t still not be compelling evidence that things are looking up again for European economy. A weaker than expected reading, however, is unlikely to prevent the ECB from phasing out QE at this juncture, but it will make officials careful in communicating changes and could impact the rate path over the next couple of years.

  • UK Earnings & Unemployment Rate – the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at the multi-decade low of 4.2%. Average household income is expected to rise 2.6% y/y in the with-bonus figure and to a new cycle high rate of 2.9% y/y in the three months to March , which should keep BoE tightening expectations alive.

  • EU GDP – expected  to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q,  unchanged from the preliminary reading and also sharply lower than in Q4.

  • US Retail Sales & Empire State Index – Retail activity picked up in the last month of Q1, hence it is expected continue like that into the start of Q2, with sales expected to rise 0.5% in April, following a 0.6% gain in March and ex-autos sales should rise 0.7%. The Empire State index may edge up to 17.0 in May , from 15.8 in April.

 Support & Resistance Levels

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By Andria Pichidi

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