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EUR/USD Forecast: trading heavily ahead of US data

Written by By Valeria Bednarik | 2018-05-15 09:28:31 GMT

The dollar is back up as bond yields rise, with the EUR/USD pair extending its decline to 1.1909 so far today, and trading a few pips above the level. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 3.03% now around 3.02%. Adding pressure to the common currency, German preliminary Q1 GDP came in at 0.3%, well below the 0.4% expected or the previous 0.6%, while for the whole EU, Q1 growth was estimated to have been 0.4& in line with market's expectations and the previous reading.  Industrial Production in the EU grew less-than-expected, up 0.5% in March, although the German ZEW survey showed that the deterioration in business sentiment stalled, with the index for the country printing -8.2 but improving for the Union to 2.4 from previous 1.9.

The US will also have a busy macroeconomic calendar, starting with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, seen in May at 15.0 from previous 15.8, and April Retail Sales, expected to have grown 0.5% in the month. A better-than-expected outcome will likely boost the greenback, particularly if yields retain their positive tone.

The EUR/USD pair 4 hours chart shows that it remains below the 1.1960 Fibonacci level, the immediate resistance, also below all of its moving averages. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart bounces modestly from its mid-line while the RSI turned lower in neutral territory, all of which indicates some short-term indecision, but with the scale leaned to the downside.  Below the daily low, 1.1880 and 1.1840 are the next short-term supports, while resistances today come at 1.1960 and the 1.2000 figure.

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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By Valeria Bednarik
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