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EUR/USD – Euro Unchanged as German, Eurozone GDP Meet Expectations

Written by By Kenny Fisher | 2018-05-15 10:45:41 GMT

Second-quarter eurozone and German GDP data were within expectations, but investors should not become too sanguine, as the first quarter numbers pointed to a slowdown. Both Germany and the eurozone posted gains of 0.6% in the first quarter. Will economic conditions improve in Q2? Institutional analysts don’t seem optimistic, according to the well-respected ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys. The German indicator posted a sharp drop of -8.2 for a second straight month – the first declines since July 2016. The eurozone release improved to 2.4, but low reading certainly doesn’t show much optimism. The markets are bracing for more soft numbers on Wednesday, as Germany and eurozone release CPI reports. If these indicators miss their estimates, the euro could lose ground.

With the U.S economy performing well in 2018, the U.S consumer is feeling very optimistic. On Friday, the UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 98.8 in April, beating the estimate of 98.4 points. The U.S labor market is at near or full employment, which has resulted in a slowdown in job growth due to a shortage of skilled workers. This was underscored last week, as JOLTS Job Openings climbed to a record 6.6 million. At the same time, inflation levels remain low, as the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent remains elusive. CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, but this fell short of the estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI edged lower to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Inflation levels will be an important factor for the Fed in its monetary policy projection, which remains at two more hikes in 2018. The odds of a rate hike at the June hike stands close to 100%.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (May 15)

  • 2:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.3%

  • 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%

  • 2:45 French Preliminary Private Payrolls. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.3%

  • 5:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%

  • 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -8.0. Actual -8.2

  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.5%

  • 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 2.0. Actual 2.4

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%

  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%

  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 15.1

  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%

  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 70

  • 12:45 US FOMC Member John Williams

  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases

Wednesday (May 16)

  • 14:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.0%

  • 5:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 1.2%

  • 8:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.35M

  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.33M

EURUSD

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1718 1.1809 1.1915 1.2025 1.2092 1.2235

 

EUR/USD inched lower in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in European trade

  • 1.1915 was tested earlier in support and is a weak line

  • 1.2025 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1915, 1.1809, 1.1718 and 1.1613

  • Above: 1.2025, 1.2092 and 1.2235

  • Current range: 1.1915 to 1.2025

Author

By Kenny Fisher
XM

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